Decline In Solar Panel Prices Over Time

Over the last decade wind energy prices have fallen 70 and solar photovoltaics have fallen 89 on average according to lazard s 2019 report.

Decline in solar panel prices over time.

Utility scale renewable energy prices are now. For many panels this is given as 2 to 3 in the first year and then 0 7 a year after that but it can be as low as 0 25 a year for some sunpower panels. As recently as 2011 solar ppa prices in excess of 100 mwh were quite common. Barely five years later most ppas in the 2015 sample are priced at or below 50 mwh.

Let s add forecasts made by the international energy agency iea in their 2010 world energy outlook along with the forecast i made in 2011 at scientific american. The dramatic drop in the cost of solar photovoltaic pv modules which has fallen by 99 percent over the last four decades is often touted as a major success story for renewable energy technology. But one question has never been fully addressed. Second ppa costs are falling.

The cost has generally been following swanson s law which states that the price of solar drops by 20 for every doubling of shipped product. According to swanson s law whenever the production and shipment of solar panels doubles panel prices drop by 20 percent. Prices have dropped more than 60 percent in the past several years with the average upfront cost for the commonly used 6 kw system landing between 16 200 21 420. Just as remarkably and relevant for considering the future cost of solar the decline of solar prices over the past decade has been faster than almost any credible forecast.

Changes in solar panel cost over time can be explained by swanson s law which states that the price of solar pv modules decreases by about 20 percent for every doubling in global solar capacity. Note these figures may have a minus sign in front of them as in 0 7 or 0 25. We might now be in a post swanson era. Trends have continued until recently with a report from the nrel that showed the price per watt of solar energy dropped by 27 in the first quarter of 2017 alone.

The effect is cyclical. Back in 1977 the price of solar photovoltaic cells was 77 for just one watt of power. It s a good idea not to get these percentages confused. As costs decline the number of people for whom solar is a viable affordable possibility increases which further depresses panel prices.

Today it s around 0 13 per watt or about 600 times less.